This word has brought division and uncertainty as well as optimism and pragmatism to our country, depending who you ask Britain is about to slip into oblivion or be reborn bigger, better and stronger. But who is right? Sure there are many aspects to Brexit and how it will affect the populace so to argue whether it is good or bad for the country is, at this stage at least, unquantifiable. But that is not to say that we cannot look at certain sectors as indicators of how Brexit will affect the future.
The manufacturing industry, whilst having a mixed 2016, is showing signs that Brexit may not be the ‘end of the world’ scenario being painted by some elements of the press. In fact the manufacturing sector has shown month on month growth in 2017 and overall, is seeing its strongest results in 29 years.
One main reason for this improved performance by the manufacturing sector is the value of the pound on the world stage. Due to the drop in the value of sterling, British exports are cheaper which means other countries can buy more of our stuff for a good price. On the other side of the spectrum, this has increased import costs of raw materials but when offset against the surge in output, we are still seeing a rise in results. A CBI monthly survey of 464 local manufacturers found that total order books have increased to the highest levels since 1988 and exports orders have improved to reach a 22 year high.
Arguably the most ironic aspect about this uptake in exports is the fact that the bulk of the increase is from the EU from whom we will soon be leaving. It could be argued that this rise is due to the fear that they will soon not be able to trade so freely depending on the outcome of Brexit. This uptake could change if we leave with no deal or a bad deal.
So can we keep this momentum?
Whilst our economy is resilient, there will no doubt be a few bumps in the road as the finer details of Brexit come to the forefront. This could affect the value of the pound and depending whether it goes up or down, would have a knock on effect to the manufacturing sector. The Government has also put trade, manufacturing and engineering high on its list of priorities during the negotiations.
The best approach at the moment would be one of caution, whilst the future is looking rosy, it is no reason to get complacent.
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